« Les taux montent de plus en plus en Europe ! » L’édito de Charles SANNAT

Mes chères impertinentes, chers impertinents,

Il faut surveiller régulièrement l’évolution des taux d’intérêt en Europe et en particulier en zone euro. Faisons un point rapide en cette fin de semaine pour voir ce qu’il se passe dans cette période de forte remontée des taux directeurs par les banques centrales.

« Les rendements des obligations d’État de la zone euro ont atteint de nouveaux sommets pluriannuels après que la Réserve fédérale américaine a été rejointe par trois banques centrales européennes pour augmenter les taux jeudi, la Fed indique une trajectoire de resserrement plus forte que prévu lors des prochaines réunions.
La Fed prévoit une augmentation de son taux directeur à un rythme plus rapide et à un niveau plus élevé que prévu, un ralentissement de l’économie et une hausse du chômage à un degré historiquement associé aux reculs.

D’autres banques centrales transmettent leurs taux, la Banque d’Angleterre étend son taux d’intérêt directeur de 50 points de base (pb) comme prévu. Les banques centrales suisse et norvégienne ont également relevé leurs taux jeudi. »

Partout, dans le monde entier et en Europe en particulier, les banques centrales montent les taux après des années de taux zéro, et même négatifs dans une grande partie du monde.

Des taux européens que la BCE va pousser jusqu’à 2,9 % en 2023 !

« Les marchés monétaires présentent à environ 85 % la probabilité d’une hausse des taux de la BCE de 75 points de base en octobre, tandis que le swap d’indice à un jour ESTR de la BCE indique un pic en septembre 2023 à environ 2,9 %.

Les responsables de la BCE continuent de délivrer des messages bellicistes, Isabel Schnabel, membre du conseil d’administration, déclarant que la zone euro est confrontée à un ralentissement économique, mais que l’inflation est encore bien trop élevée, de sorte que les taux d’intérêt doit continuer à augmenter ».

Les taux à 10 ans sont largement supérieurs à 4 % en Italie comme en Grèce.

Voici quelques chiffres.

10 ans grec : 4,72 %

10 ans italien : 4,16 %

10 ans espagnol : 3,12 %

10 ans portugais : 2.97 %

10 ans français : 2.54 %

10 ans allemand : 1.96 %

Le « spread » c’est-à-dire l’écart de taux entre l’Allemagne le meilleur élève de la zone euro et l’Italie, en queue de peloton est de 2.76… cela commence à faire une prime de risque visible sur l’Italie par rapport à l’Allemagne ! Un bon écart, mais pas encore critique et qui n’indique pas que la dette italienne serait attaquée par les marchés. Même les élections italiennes avec l’extrême droite aux portes du pouvoir ne semblent pas émouvoir les marchés qui pour le moment sont relativement calmes et ne spéculent pas sur la dette italienne.

Est-ce que cela restera stable sur les marchés « achetant » le message de la BCE qui a dit qu’elle interviendrait pour soutenir l’euro et les dettes souveraines si nécessaires ? Est-ce le calme avant la tempête ? Très difficile à dire. Raison pour laquelle il faut en permanence garder un œil sur ces fameux taux à 10 ans des grands pays de la zone euro et regarder l’évolution des écarts de taux entre tous ces pays.

Il est déjà trop tard, mais tout n’est pas perdu.

préparez-vous !

Charles SANNAT

« Insolentiae » signifie « impertinence » en latin
Pour m’écrire charles@insolentiae.com
Pour écrire à ma femme helene@insolentiae.com

Vous pouvez également vous abonner à ma lettre mensuelle « STRATÉGIES » qui vous permettra d’aller plus loin et dans laquelle je partagerai avec vous les solutions concrètes à mettre en œuvre pour vous préparer au monde d’après. Ces solutions sont articulées autour de l’approche PEL – patrimoine, emploi, localisation. L’idée c’est de partager avec vous les moyens et les méthodes pour mettre en place votre résilience personnelle et familiale.

« À vouloir étouffer les révolutions pacifiques, on rend inévitables les révolutions violentes » (JFK)

« Ceci est un article ‘presslib’, c’est-à-dire libre de reproduction en tout ou en partie à condition que le présent alinéa soit reproduit à sa suite. Insolentiae.com est le site sur lequel Charles Sannat s’exprime quotidiennement et livre un décryptage impertinent et sans concession de l’actualité économique. Merci de visiter mon site. Vous pouvez vous abonner gratuitement à la lettre d’information quotidienne sur www.insolentiae.com. »

1 réflexion sur “« Les taux montent de plus en plus en Europe ! » L’édito de Charles SANNAT”

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